Electricity Update:
- PURC to raise tariffs by 1.14% from Oct 1, 2025.
- Water tariffs unchanged.
- Inflation outlook improved: 12.4% vs. 20.7% in Q3.
Impact:
- Minimal inflation effect — disinflation path intact.
- Businesses reliant on grid power face slight OPEX increases.
- Solar adopters (e.g., TOTALEnergies) gain resilience, while Fan Milk PLC continues to struggle with rising costs.
Energy Sector Highlights:
- Govt disbursed USD 682m (Jun–Sept 2025) to support fuel, IPPs & gas supply.
- ECG compliance with Cash Waterfall Mechanism improves liquidity.
- Stable power outlook supports GDP recovery.
Risks to Watch:
- FX under-recovery likely as market rates (~12.3/USD) exceed PURC’s assumption (11.97/USD).
- Inflation strength may cushion this risk.
Bottom Line:
Ghana’s modest tariff hike won’t derail disinflation.
Energy reforms and compliance support stable power & economic recovery — but FX pressures remain the key watchpoint.
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